Uh Oh (maybe)

[WildWestDesigns]

Now, I'm no longer on Windows/Mac, so software changing or disappearing is no skin off my back. However, I still keep up with programs as much as I can. Heard some scuttlebutt, went to their website and greeted with this:



No ability to purchase, their forum is locked down as well. It could be something simple, the only concern that I have is that they are owned by Canva and I have a dim view of situations when acquisitions are a part of it. Typically it's not because of actual true competition (in fact, it's the removal of said competition which isn't good for the users as well, some companies have been doing it for decades and it just shows that they are unable to truly innovate, but I digress).

It may not be anything, this is all just me speculating, I just don't feel warm and fuzzy about this going well, particularly after just about what a year since it was bought by Canva?

 

[Gino]

Speculate away.........

 

[WildWestDesigns]

Speculate away.........

Hey, I can do it.

 

[DL Signs]

I know they're moving their forums to Discord, not sure what else they're doing.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

I know they're moving their forums to Discord, not sure what else they're doing.

Yep, they are. Which, in my opinion is not a good thing when talking about the type of info that does better in a traditional forum way to look at it.

I don't mind discord, but I mainly use it really due to dev libraries that I use/contribute to, use it that as the primary mode of communication outside of github/gitlab. But it's more transitory compared to a forum. However, it is cheaper to operate compared to a forum as well.

 

[Goatshaver]

I'll speculate that it's going to be mobile editing tools like Adobe Express to edit from the web or phone/tablet.
It's Canva/Affinity's major competition in that space that I'm aware of.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

I'll speculate that it's going to be mobile editing tools like Adobe Express to edit from the web or phone/tablet.
It's Canva/Affinity's major competition in that space that I'm aware of.

Maybe, but why shut off purchasing, atleast easily thru online for all products? I couldn't find any way to purchase, at least easily, current offerings.

 

[Goatshaver]

Maybe, but why shut off purchasing, atleast easily thru online for all products? I couldn't find any way to purchase, at least easily, current offerings.

Probably going the way of a subscription model. It's kind of odd though that they just leave everyone in the dark about purchasing part.
They gave away the Apps for the iPad after the announcement, but all purchasing is off globally now.

Ahead of a mysterious announcement on October 30 iPad versions of Affinity's suite of apps — Affinity Photo, Affinity Publisher, and Affinity Designer — have been made entirely free. We think you need to move quickly to get this, though.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

Probably going the way of a subscription model. It's kind of odd though that they just leave everyone in the dark about purchasing part.

I don't doubt that either, although people probably won't have forgotten this though:

However, to be fair, a pledge isn't really legally binding either (which is why I wouldn't be surprised if they go this way, given Canva's model otherwise).

Again, speculation, but most everything, rather we like it or not, is going the SaaS model when it comes to the commercial variants. At some point, I imagine that it will happen, the question becomes how late are they going to be to the "party".

While getting "absorbed" into Canva is technically possible, I don't know if it would happen at this point.

Guess have to find out around Halloween (hopefully, it's a "treat"). Just what has happened elsewhere within the industry, just don't know how much faith I have it in being a "treat".

 

[Bobby H]

My speculative guess is the Canva folks are going to use the bones of Affinity Designer to launch some sort of desktop app version of Canva. And they'll probably have some "artificial intelligence" content-generating features included. That way we can get even more AI-flavored trash-art from customers to waste time repairing to make "production ready."

Their big reveal date of October 30 is kind of telling. The Adobe MAX conference will be well underway. I guess the folks at Canva will be trying to steal some attention from Adobe.

If Affinity Designer ends up going away will Canva/Serif still offer any basic support for it? What I mean by that is say for instance a computer's hard disc toasts itself. Will someone who bought and registered a copy of Affinity Designer be able to reinstall it? Like so many apps these days, it has to be able to phone home to be activated.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

My speculative guess is the Canva folks are going to use the bones of Affinity Designer to launch some sort of desktop app version of Canva.

Technically, they already have the bones for one, but since they don't use a local server for the webview app that they have, it's not. If they had a local server for the webview app, they could still have access to the native APIs without having to refactor to match up with how things are done with Affinity.

And they'll probably have some "artificial intelligence" content-generating features included. That way we can get even more AI-flavored trash-art from customers to waste time repairing to make "production ready."

I can certainly see that. Most people now (even "professionals"), believe that some form of "AI" needs to be in programs.

Their big reveal date of October 30 is kind of telling. The Adobe MAX conference will be well underway. I guess the folks at Canva will be trying to steal some attention from Adobe.

Depends on what they are going to showcase as to see if it really steals Adobe's thunder.

If Affinity Designer ends up going away will Canva/Serif still offer any basic support for it? What I mean by that is say for instance a computer's hard disc toasts itself. Will someone who bought and registered a copy of Affinity Designer be able to reinstall it? Like so many apps these days, it has to be able to phone home to be activated.

I doubt that they would. What is the latest version, 2.x? If this launch is 3.x, I wouldn't expect support for an HD crash. It sucks, but I wouldn't expect it. At best, maybe get a discount for an "upgrade", but I wouldn't expect even that given today's environment. Again, speculation, but nothing points me to anything else.

 

[park3r]

My speculative guess is the Canva folks are going to use the bones of Affinity Designer to launch some sort of desktop app version of Canva. And they'll probably have some "artificial intelligence" content-generating features included. That way we can get even more AI-flavored trash-art from customers to waste time repairing to make "production ready."

Their big reveal date of October 30 is kind of telling. The Adobe MAX conference will be well underway. I guess the folks at Canva will be trying to steal some attention from Adobe.

If Affinity Designer ends up going away will Canva/Serif still offer any basic support for it? What I mean by that is say for instance a computer's hard disc toasts itself. Will someone who bought and registered a copy of Affinity Designer be able to reinstall it? Like so many apps these days, it has to be able to phone home to be activated.

Im so mad about AI right now i posted in other thread and i was saying there that AI is not that bad, not its bad. I mean if youre restoring old photo, or generating cat video by just pressing click here or click there button its fine. BUT GOSH so many people are just stupid trying to chat gpt how to turn on the TV or some people are thinking they are "smart" generating trash arts and photos to sell them, my opinion changed so hard.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

BUT GOSH so many people are just stupid trying to chat gpt how to turn on the TV or some people are thinking they are "smart" generating trash arts and photos to sell them, my opinion changed so hard.

This was actually the inevitable outcome. It typically happens with high level abstractions. Cream will always rise to the top, unfortunately, there will be a lot of crap that comes out of it. And as we get into future generation of users that have only known this, statistically speaking, they won't know what it is abstracting and how to fix it (or know that it needs fixing) when it does break.

What makes matters worse is what people are calling "AI" really isn't "AI" in the truest sense. That's the irony. Something is being marketed as "AI" when it really isn't.

But you better buckle up, as MS (and others) have really crammed "AI" into everything, it's going to get a whole lot worse (and forcing their programmers to use "AI" tools, after all this is the one thing that we want to make sure we are "dog fooding" even though it has had lackluster results so far.

 

[DL Signs]

Canva is why we can't have nice things

 

[Bobby H]

So apparently Affinity Designer, Photo and Publisher are all being merged into a new all-in-one Affinity app. The Canva folks are making that app free to download/install. But certain features, such as things to do with artificial intelligence, will require a paid Canva premium subscription. I'm not sure I'll even bother downloading the app. I have Affinity Designer 2-point-whatever yet rarely ever use it. CorelDRAW and Adobe Illustrator are my daily drivers for vector graphics.

I wasn't very thrilled with the recent Adobe MAX conference; I watched keynote speeches and other seminars online. The interview with director and DC Studios head James Gunn on day 2 was a highlight. So much of the event was devoted to hyping various AI functions in apps like Adobe Express. Other actual new features and improvements in various Adobe applications were overshadowed. I'm glad I didn't pay a huge sum of money to attend the conference in person.

I don't have a positive opinion about so-called AI. It's one thing if AI routines can be used to quickly remove distracting objects from photos in Photoshop or remove a black background in some stock video footage. It's another thing when AI bots are being used to instantly generate entire images or publications from a text prompt. That feels like a cheat. The thing that makes so many business people excited about AI is that technological cheating can eventually be used to kill jobs and pump up profit margins.

Make no mistake about it: the ultimate goal with this AI stuff is about automating away millions of jobs. That's the quiet part business people are trying their best to not say out loud.

America's stock markets are very much into bubble territory with all the AI speculation. It should be alarming that so many circular deals are taking place between companies like OpenAI, NVidia and others. Some people say this is the proverbial snake eating its own tail. The only reason why we haven't seen a major stock market crash yet is because these circular deals have been done with cash these companies already had on hand. That's the difference between this and the dot-com bubble in 1999. Back then a lot of the investing was being done with borrowed money and the new start-ups weren't generating any actual income. Still a $5 trillion valuation for NVidia depends on the company earning a bunch of future profits to justify such a giant valuation.

This AI bubble has been inflated by faith or hope a lot of future money will be made. But how is that money going to get made? If investors start feeling like the whole thing is a mirage they may cash out and head for the exits. If the pay-off for AI is eliminating millions of white collar jobs then that will negatively impact the broader economy. An AI "agent" isn't going to pay taxes, have a mortgage or buy stuff. It takes employed human beings to do that.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

I wasn't very thrilled with the recent Adobe MAX conference; I watched keynote speeches and other seminars online. The interview with director and DC Studios head James Gunn on day 2 was a highlight. So much of the event was devoted to hyping various AI functions in apps like Adobe Express. Other actual new features and improvements in various Adobe applications were overshadowed. I'm glad I didn't pay a huge sum of money to attend the conference in person.

Is it really a surprise? Adobe creative programs are getting on to be 40 yrs old and Draw is getting there as well, just a couple of yrs behind Adobe programs. There really is less room for innovation. We are at the iteration level without any real new thing to stimulate the creativity. Ironically that is actually "AI" or what passes for it. Problem is, it's not worth a darn.

Most software companies, with "AI" are really more about being data brokers. That's really it, that's why the main focus is "AI", besides being the shiny new object that fascinates them, it also allows them to collect massive amounts of data that they can distribute to their "data partners".

It's another thing when AI bots are being used to instantly generate entire images or publications from a text prompt. That feels like a cheat. The thing that makes so many business people excited about AI is that technological cheating can eventually be used to kill jobs and pump up profit margins.

Right on both counts. It is a cheat and C level people love it as it makes it easier to iterate through and it really doesn't require anybody with two creative brain cells to do anything to come up with the image. What passes for "AI" is just one huge layer of abstraction. Those that are the 3rd/4th gen of users that have only known how to use these tools aren't going to know how to correct the issues or even be aware that there are issues to begin with.

Make no mistake about it: the ultimate goal with this AI stuff is about automating away millions of jobs. That's the quiet part business people are trying their best to not say out loud.

They really haven't been all that silent about it. They have all been selling it in terms of efficiency and not needing as many people to do the jobs.

 

[Bobby H]

Is it really a surprise? Adobe creative programs are getting on to be 40 yrs old and Draw is getting there as well, just a couple of yrs behind Adobe programs. There really is less room for innovation. We are at the iteration level without any real new thing to stimulate the creativity. Ironically that is actually "AI" or what passes for it. Problem is, it's not worth a darn.

Regardless of apps like Photoshop and Illustrator getting close to the 40 year age mark they're still getting really useful new features. And those apps are still the industry leaders in their respective categories. The new version of After Effects got a lot of useful new improvements. The problem is the discussion of those improvements took a back seat to all the AI hype.

Out of all the different vector graphics applications I use, I'm more concerned about the future of CorelDRAW than I am about anything from Adobe. Corel is owned by a private equity company. So we have no idea how good or bad the product sales are of that product. One thing is certain: the past few full version upgrades of CorelDRAW have been pretty unimpressive. Maintenance updates have been few and far between. That makes me think the company has cut back on the budget for CorelDRAW software development.

They really haven't been all that silent about it. They have all been selling it in terms of efficiency and not needing as many people to do the jobs.

I don't think the corporate executives and investors enamored with AI are seeing the possible big picture consequences. Or, rather, they're probably hoping they can make their own fortunes with the tech before the economic shit storm happens.

These companies like OpenAI, NVidia, Google, etc can go around in circles paying each other for products/services and to help pump their stock prices. However they can do that for only so long. At some point they're going to depend on regular end users who happen to be human beings with jobs and paychecks to buy their stuff. These companies haven't come close to making their big pay days real with this technology, yet it's already causing a lot of harm to ordinary people. Aside from thousands of jobs being eliminated at companies like Amazon, the big data centers these companies are building are causing utility prices to spike in the locales where they're built. Some of these data centers are being built just to mine cryptocurrency.

70% of the American economy is driven by consumer spending. An AI "agent" isn't going to buy squat, much less pay taxes or have kids who grow up to serve in our military and defend our country. If AI succeeds in automating away as many jobs as these business people dream of doing we won't have much of an economy or tax base left at all. It might be "Great Depression 2.0." We already have a two-tier economy of sorts taking shape, where the richest 10% are driving more of the economy and the remaining 90% no longer matter. The richest few might tell the rest of us to "eat cake." But that might work for only a short amount of time. Our military's manpower comes mostly from that 90% of the population that no longer matters. And America is in a state of worsening demographic decline. Our median age is getting older and fewer new Americans are being born. Currently all branches of our military are falling short of recruiting targets. 20 years from now they all may struggle with manpower levels even if military service is turned into a requirement for all young adults.

This AI stuff, combined with ever-improving automation hardware, has the potential to really hollow out much of this country as we know it.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

Regardless of apps like Photoshop and Illustrator getting close to the 40 year age mark they're still getting really useful new features.

That depends on the user.

And those apps are still the industry leaders in their respective categories.

More so by tradition compared to anything else. Historic pipelines that depend on the tech debt that these programs have.

The new version of After Effects got a lot of useful new improvements. The problem is the discussion of those improvements took a back seat to all the AI hype.

There are still stability concerns, and keep in mind, if I'm not mistaken, it's still a layered approach, while most other programs and that industry has shifted to programs that have heavily gone into nodes (and there is actually a practical coding reason for that as well, but I digress). I would consider something like Nuke to be more industry standard compared to After Effects. For sure at the higher level, maybe mid-tier and lower for After Effects.

I don't think the corporate executives and investors enamored with AI are seeing the possible big picture consequences. Or, rather, they're probably hoping they can make their own fortunes with the tech before the economic shit storm happens.

Or that their unicorn comes in and everything is just a ok.

These companies haven't come close to making their big pay days real with this technology, yet it's already causing a lot of harm to ordinary people.

We actually have reports that say that they aren't even more efficient with "AI" and the irony is, even people that would be in the best position to have the knowledge to handle when "AI" is wrong and correct it and still be able to yoke the supposed benefits of "AI", even have problems with it. Even if they know the correct answer, they have what is called the "AI pause" and wait for that mostly wrong answer that they have to fix instead of doing it right the first time. Even the tools that are there to make those that still have a job to work more efficiently have to be forced and tied to performance evals. That tells me that the tooling isn't even there.

70% of the American economy is driven by consumer spending. An AI "agent" isn't going to buy squat, much less pay taxes or have kids who grow up to serve in our military and defend our country. If AI succeeds in automating away as many jobs as these business people dream of doing we won't have much of an economy or tax base left at all. It might be "Great Depression 2.0." We already have a two-tier economy of sorts taking shape, where the richest 10% are driving more of the economy and the remaining 90% no longer matter. The richest few might tell the rest of us to "eat cake." But that might work for only a short amount of time. Our military's manpower comes mostly from that 90% of the population that no longer matters. And America is in a state of worsening demographic decline. Our median age is getting older and fewer new Americans are being born. Currently all branches of our military are falling short of recruiting targets. 20 years from now they all may struggle with manpower levels even if military service is turned into a requirement for all young adults.

This AI stuff, combined with ever-improving automation hardware, has the potential to really hollow out much of this country as we know it.

This has been a few decades in the making, there is actually an issue if one removes "AI" from the discussion and "AI" didn't exist. The reasons that I attribute to would definitely be considered "hot takes", so I'll leave it at that. We are seeing a different paradigm shift, they usually come every 80-100 yrs, it's just about right for one. Some will like the new direction, some won't, the way these things go. Will it be enough to help with the current ails, depends on which way it goes and how soon it does go.